FP: Steve Schippert, welcome back to Frontpage Interview.

Schippert: My pleasure.

FP: What does the assassination of Bhutto mean for Pakistan going forward? What perils now lie ahead?

Schippert: Benazir Bhutto's assassination Thursday is a devastating blow for Pakistan and a great loss as such for the West. For all her faults readily pointed out by her critics - rightly or wrongly - she remained the best hope for a representation of reasonable and moderate Pakistanis within their own government.

Now, the only significantly popular alternative is another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. And he has advocated a Pakistani position of unceremonious distancing of Pakistan from the United States and cozying up to the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance of terrorists and insurgents nested in Pakistan's tribal regions. He is also said to have benefited from a significant contribution in his failed first run for prime minister from none other than Usama bin Laden - to the tune of $3 billion rupees. For the West, he is not a trustworthy ally at all against al-Qaeda in his midst.

The elections slated for January 8th will almost certainly be delayed by Musharraf, who can be expected to announce another phase of emergency powers if violent street protests do not abate - effectively enacting a state of emergency with the constitution suspended and martial law in place.

It should be noted that instability and disunity are a requirement of any successful insurgency campaign, and an insurgency is exactly what the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance has been executing - albeit in a remarkably patient, methodical 'Death by a Thousand Cuts' fashion. Their goals are two-fold: Establish Pakistan as the base of their envisioned restoration of a caliphate and the acquisition of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, providing them with both horrifying means of attack as well as a newfound deterrence.

FP: Al-Qaeda is likely responsible, like it has boasted it is, right? Bhutto's supporters have thus far blamed only Musharraf.

Schippert: Bhutto's supporters are understandably distraught and - to be honest - have reason to distrust Musharraf's government if not Musharraf himself. After the first assassination attempt on Bhutto, she wrote a letter and named names of those within Musharraf's government who wanted her dead. But at the same time, there is also a difference between individuals within the government potentially conspiring against her and Musharraf's complicity in her assassination. In ways - depending on the individual - it would be almost like ascribing guilt to Ronald Reagan for the acts of Aldrich Ames or to Bill Clinton for the acts of Robert Hanssen. Almost, but not quite.

Al-Qaeda has taken credit for the attack. At least that is the claim of al-Qaeda's military commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid. While we all wait for a more definitive (more authoritative, if you will) claim of al-Qaeda responsibility, al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the failed coordinated attempt on her life last month in Karachi when she returned to Pakistan. That failed attack was a carbon copy of the one executed successfully Thursday - sniper fire followed by a suicide bomber blast near her vehicle. The difference this time was that the attackers closed on their target while she was still standing with her head and torso outside the sunroof of her armored vehicle, not after she had gone inside its protection. She was shot multiple times in the neck and chest and later died of massive blood loss.

Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid apparently conveyed to well-connected Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad that Ayman al-Zawahiri gave the orders himself in October to prepare cells for her assassination after her plans to return in a power-sharing arrangement with Musharraf was announced. In such a case, an over-riding strategic order for multiple al-Qaeda terrorist cells squares with consistent ground tactics in the two attacks.

FP: So what of Bhutto's supporters' claims that Musharraf is responsible?

Schippert: There is a point of unspoken synergy among the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance and supporters of both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif: They all seek the end of Musharraf's days in Pakistan. And this is a most unfortunate reality, as the discontent of Bhutto's supporters feeds al-Qaeda's need for disunity and unrest in order to carry their insurgency to the next level. This has always been the case and is potentially nearing a tipping point now. The next few days will be telling in this regard, and critical to observe.

At the end of the day, Islamists within Pakistani intelligence and military circles likely had a hand in Bhutto's assassination. But let's keep in mind that these same circles also had hands in the multiple al-Qaeda assassination attempts on Musharraf as well, including in the very same garrison city of Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan's army and military intelligence (ISI) headquarters.

FP: What does this tragedy mean for the region?

Schippert: Again, the loss of Bhutto is not only a loss for Pakistanis, but also for the rest of the world hoping Pakistan can stabilize and modernize and lose itself one day of the threat of an al-Qaeda which strengthens and grows on its fertile grounds.

Her assassination comes at particularly high cost for Afghanistan and Hamid Karzai, who was in Pakistan attempting to build upon the strained, angry relations between the two countries. For every measure of instability within Pakistan, there is an equal measure of violent attacks into Afghanistan from within the Taliban-al-Qaeda Pakistani lairs. Recall that Musharraf's ceding of the Waziristan Agencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas was based on a written agreement that cross-border attacks into Afghanistan would be halted. They rose 300% overnight. An even weaker Pakistan ripped and distracted by internal unrest beyond the tribal areas spells trouble measured in blood for Afghanistan.

Equally concerned is India. Should al-Qaeda gain control of Pakistani nuclear weapons, the first target will not likely be New York, Tel Aviv or Baghdad, but rather New Dehli. If al-Qaeda can successfully decapitate the whole of India's political class, an insurgency by Indian Muslims could be successfully and swiftly launched, breaking India up into pieces while simultaneously and successfully resolving the Kashmir conflict - which is still teeming with al-Qaeda-aligned terrorist groups. Any Indian retaliatory strike can be plausibly acceptable considering the gains and the dutiful expansion of a new caliphate.

FP: What then does this mean for the United States and the West?

Schippert: For the US going forward, we may be approaching a time where the US needs to determine if it is going to continue to support Musharraf wholly and stay largely out of Pakistan or confront the danger full-on and unleash a full assault on the tribal regions held by al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Perhaps a recognition that at the end of the day there truly is no defeating al-Qaeda within Pakistan by Pakistan, and that it will require American boots on the ground and assets in the air - whether convenient or not, pleasant contemplation or not. We may be nearing that crucial decision point.

Also keep in mind that, if history is a guide, the decision may be made for us. Consider the recent history of Pakistani leaders who have appointed a new Chief of Army Staff - such as Musharraf did in appointing General Kiyani to take his place. It would not be a stretch of the imagination to contemplate Kiyani overthrowing Musharraf thinking him too divisive for his country to survive. Recall the unspoken synergy of mutual anger held both by Bhutto supporters and al-Qaeda for Musharraf. With her assassination, it could be a perfect storm brewing for al-Qaeda in Pakistan - one that could eclipse the synergistic anger that manifested after Lal Masjid assault and the arrest of Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhry.

Recall also that Musharraf himself was appointed Chief of Army Staff by Nawaz Sharif. General Musharraf dispatched of him in short order in a bloodless coup shortly after.

History can tell us many things. But what it cannot tell us is often more troubling. We are now in uncharted waters with an increasingly unstable nuclear power while a bloodthirsty international terrorist organization thrives within its borders. Not even the fall and breakup of the Soviet Union can compare in potential perils.

The coming week is critical, and all events in Pakistan warrant the closest attention.

FP: Steve Schippert, thank you for joining Frontpage Interview.

Schippert: Thank you Jamie.