Alliances among America’s enemies have been accelerating at
an unprecedented rate. As reported by FrontPage throughout this year, Russia,
Cuba and Venezuela have recently signed numerous economic
and military
agreements. Now, at the end of this month, the three nations are gathering
once again for a series of historic meetings.
Raul Castro is scheduled to make his first visit to
Venezuela since becoming the new President of Cuba after his elderly brother
Fidel stepped aside earlier this year. The event is expected to take place in Caracas on November 26,
and will involve the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), an
international cooperation organization in Latin America and the Caribbean, and
Petrocaribe, a Caribbean oil alliance. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has
long hoped to hold a summit dedicated to tackling the ongoing financial crisis,
an event he has said would be an alternative to the recent G20 summit in
Washington.
That same week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
will visit Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba following the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru.
The timing of these summits is no coincidence. “Viewing the
transfer of power between U.S. President George W. Bush and President-elect
Barack Obama as a key transition period,” say Stratfor
analysts, Medvedev’s “intent is to remind the incoming U.S. president that
[Medvedev] too can play in another power’s near abroad.”
The same thinking motivates Castro and Chavez as well – they
need to “lay out the chessboard for the incoming U.S. President.”
Chavez in particular desperately requires the prestige such
meetings can provide him; Venezuelan voters go to the polls in state and local
elections just a few days before his meeting with Castro, and the results may
indicate that Chavez’s popularity has fallen. Plummeting oil prices mean Chavez
has far less leverage to bully his people, his neighbors and the United States,
and less money to pay his mounting domestic and foreign bills. However,
Medvedev’s visit to Chavez will coincide with joint Russian exercises off the
shore of Venezuela. Perhaps the military spectacle will be enough to
reinvigorate Chavez’s diminishing personal “brand”, even briefly.
For Raul Castro, who has stood in his brother’s long shadow
for decades, these widely publicized gatherings let him position himself as a
serious, recognized, long term leader among the world’s – for lack of a better
expression -- anti-American nations.
Such public relations considerations take on added
importance in light of the current international economic crisis. Russia quite
simply has less ready cash to spare in support of allies like Cuba and
Venezuela, and evidence indicates that many existing arrangements between these
countries aren’t going according to plan. For
example, Cuban negotiations with Russian oil giant LUKOIL to modernize two
of its oil refineries “never proceeded beyond the very initial stages. A source
close to the intergovernmental commission explained that Cuba received more
profitable propositions from companies in other countries -- mainly the U.S.”
Throughout both terms of the Bush administration, the three
nations have positioned themselves as leaders of what they call a
“pluri-polar”, or “post-American”, world. Yet the election of Barack Obama
helped alter international perceptions about the United States virtually over
night. The hoary old cartoonish image of America as the world’s self-appointed
“cowboy cop” suddenly seems comical. Can even the most hostile America bashers
easily conjure up a mental image of this particular president elect wearing a
big Stetson hat and firing six-shooters?
Regardless, as Ray Walser,
Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America at the Heritage Foundation, told
FrontPage, all three nations – Venezuela, Cuba and Russia – are “fixated upon
historic illusions.”
“Chavez's Bolivarian dream, Castro's vision of keeping the
Communist flame alive, and the Putin/Medvedev view of a Great Russia will cause
turmoil in the region,” Walser predicts, “and test the mettle of the Obama
Administration.”
Walser’s advice to the new President would be to “continue
to press for real democracy in Venezuela and for a democratic transition for
Cuba,” while building what might be called counterbalancing alliances with
other regional players such as Colombia, Chile and Brazil.
Pulitzer Prize winning Miami
Herald columnist Andres
Oppenheimer recently offered some advice of his own for the president
elect, based upon what he’s learned over many decades of covering the local
“beat.” He wrote:
“Obama will not want to squander his party's growing inroads
into the Cuban-American community, and the state's non-Cuban Latinos, by coming
across as too close to Chávez, or the Castro brothers.”
Oppenheimer predicts that Barack Obama will lift
restrictions on travel to Cuba, as he promised during his campaign. “He may
even shake hands with Chávez at the Summit of the Americas next April in
Trinidad and Tobago. But that's as far as he's likely to go.”
It isn’t in the interest of these anti-American leaders to
make concessions to the United States, adds Oppenheimer. “They need to keep
their conflicts with the United States alive to maintain a climate of imminent
danger that justifies their authoritarian rule. (...) Don't expect big changes
on that front.”
Longtime observers may recall that the last time Chavez met
with a man named Castro, the encounter was a strangely memorable one. Chavez
has always idolized Raul’s brother Fidel, modeling himself on the Cuban
revolutionary and dictator. When the two got together back in 2000 to sign a
$1-billion oil import agreement, the clownish Chavez cajoled his hero into
joining him for, of all things, an off-key duet on live
national radio.
Whether or not Raul Castro can be goaded into singing a
nationalistic ballad with Chavez later this month remains to be seen (and
heard). What seems certain is that Caracas, Havana and the Kremlin will
continue to make music together for the short term at least, and it won’t be
very beautiful to American ears.