How the Iraqi Election Stacks Up
By: Dr. Walid Phares
FrontPageMagazine.com | Friday, January 28, 2005
On Sunday, 13 million and 900,000 Iraqi voters can cast their ballots inside the country. Another million have the same rights overseas in 14 countries. The Diaspora vote can continue for three days -- and the voting in America began today (Friday). The outside ballots will be counted under UN supervision in Abu Dhabi. The massive bloc of free voters is probably the largest since the establishment of the Arab League in 1954. Millions of equal males and females will have to choose 275 members for the upcoming national assembly of the country. But the vote will also select candidates for the provincial councils. In the northern part of the country, a local region “Iraqi Kurdistan” will vote for its 111 representatives, including non Kurds such as Turkomen, ChaldoAssyrians and Mandeans.
For the first time in 66 years, Iraqi citizens will be voting freely. According to the elections authority, 66 entities (organization, movement, gathering, party and association) have registered their candidacy. In addition 25 individuals are seeking offices outside parties and coalitions. Four of them withdrew and three have since integrated electoral tickets. Across the spectrum 9 coalitions including 49 political entities have formed in Iraq. In the “Kurdistan region” 14 lists with one coalition are placed for the race.
This never seen phenomenon in the Arab World is a real electoral Babylon. Here is a summary of the “battlefield”
COALITION MEMBERS AND CANDIDATE
1. Justice and Future: Adala wal mustaqbal
Members:
• Party of Justice and Democratic Progress
• Faily Kurds Organization
Number of candidated: 275
This list, mostly to the left, lined up candidates across the country with a significant number of Kurdish members.
2. Iraqi Turkmen Front
Members:
• Al Jabha al Turmaniya al Iraqiya
• Eili Turkmen Party
• National Turkomen Party
• Independent Turkomen Movement
• Iraqi Turkomen Justice Party
• Turkomen Islamic Movement
Number of candidated:63
This Coalition represents the mainstream Turkmen parties. It include both right wing Islamic and secular nationalists
3. Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC )
Members:
• Al I’itilaf al Iraqi al Muwahad
• Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution of Iraq
• Hizb al Dawa
• Central Gathering Party
• Badr Organization
• Dawa Party –Iraq Organization
• Gathering of Justice and Equality
• Iraqi National Council Party
• Fadhila Iraqi Party
• First Democratic Party
• Islamic Union of Iraq’s Turkomen
• Turkomen Wafaa Movement
• Faily Islamic Gathering of Iraq
• Islamic Action Organization
• Gathering of Future Iraq
• Hizbollah Movement of Iraq
• Sayid Martyrs Movement
Number of candidates: 228
Note: Considered as the main and most powerful coalition. Blessed by Ayatollah Sistani. Includes the two largest Shiite Parties. Leading Figures: Abdelaziz al Hakim of SIRI, Ibrahim al Jaafari of Dawa Party, Ahmad Jalabi of the INC, and Nuclear Scientist Hussein Sharastani. The ticket is mainly Arab Shiite with some very small minorities such as Turkomen. Accused by others of being close to Iran. In reality, it represents the “conservative religious movement,” while absorbing some elements close to Iran’s leaders, such as Muqtada al Sadr’s sympathisers. However Sistani has calibrated the coalition to maintain the “Iraqi Shiite” component in control.
4. Rafidain National Ticket
Members:
• Qqa’imat al Rafidain al Wataniya
• Democratic Assyrian Movement
• National Chaldean Council
• Syriac ChaldoAssyrian Council
Number of candidates: 28
It is known as the main Christian coalition. It headed by Yonadem Kinna, member of the Ruling Council, and includes a number of former ministers and local representatives. The Coalition is attempting to collect enough votes to get as many seats as they need to be partners with any future Coalition Government in Iraq
5. Iraqi Ticket
Members:
• Al Lai’ha al Iraqiya
• Iraqi National Accord Movement
• Iraqi Democrats Movement
• Nahda National Democratic Party
• Iraqi Independent Movement
• Faithful Gathering to Iraq
• Notabilities Council of Iraq
• Dr Raja Habeeb al Khusaai
Number of candidates: 233 or 240
Led by Prime Minister Allawi, itincludes moderate religious figures, a number of ministers such as Falah al Naqib, Tahir al Bukaa, Qassim Daoud, Rajai al Khuzaii, and many tribal leaders. The coalition is mainly Shiite with small minorities. It’s main competition is Sistani’s “list.”
6. Kurdistani Alliance Ticket
Members:
• Laihat al tahaluf al Kurdistaniya
• Kurdistan Patriotic Union
• Democratic Kurdistan Party
• Kurdistani Islamic Union
• Communist Kurdistani Party
• Social-Democratic Kurdish Party
• National-Democratic Kurdish Union
• Beit Nahrain Democratic Party
• Chaldean Democratic Union Party
• Assyrian National Party
• The Movement of Peasants and Oppressed
• Party of the Hard Workers of Kurdistan
Number of candidates: 165
This Coalition represents the mainstream Iraqi political forces, backed by Jalal Talabani and Mahmoud Barazani. Note that it is the most comprehensive list ideologically: It comprised of ethnic nationalists, Islamists, Marxists, Socialists, liberals and conservatives. The Christian representation is significant –at least on paper. Two Assyrian parties and one Chaldean Party. The ChaldoAssyrian parties have solid influence in the Diaspora, particularly in the US.
7. Iraqi National Movement and the Independent Coalition of Iraqi Civil Society
Members:
• Al haraka al Wataniya al Iraqiya wal I’itilaf al Mujtamaa al Madani
• Iraqi national Movement
• Independent Coalition of Civil Society
Number of candidates: 172
This ticket brings together a number of civil society groups and independent liberal elements from all communities
8. The People’s Union
Members:
• Ittihad al Shaab Hikmat Daoud al Hakim
• Iraqi Communist Party
Number of candidates: 275
This ticket is basically the Communist Party of Iraq and its allies. Highly organized and motivated, they strongly oppose the Jihadists and call for full equality among minorities and women. Despite their small size, they have managed to present a full list of 275 candidates.
9. Gathering of Iraqi Democrats
Members:
• Tajammoh al Dimucratiyeen al Iraqiyeen
Number of candidates: 70
Note: This Coalition is led by Sunni leader Adnan Pashaji and includes Ministers Mahdi al hafez, Layla abdel latif, Mayson al Damluji, Jalal al Mashta and Abd Jassim. This ticket projects itself as the most representative of the Sunnis. Pashaji has established relations with the community and with the Sunni political establishment in the Arab World.
Important tickets
Gathering “Iraqis” Iraqiyun: Led by Ghazi Yaouar, current President of Iraq. It includes 80 candidate, mostly Sunni, with Defense Minister Hazem al Shaalan and Minister Hajim al Husseini as leading figures.
The Iraqi Islamic Party: al Hizb al Islami al Iraqi:Led by Muhsin abdel Hamid, this Party is the largest Sunni organization that initially participated in the elections with 275 candidates. It refused to declare the names openly, fearing reprisals from Terrorists. A statement issued by the Party said they are withdrawing, but the list is still registered
Council of the Tribes of Mosul Majliss Asha’ir al Mosul: With 32 candidates, the group represents Arab Sunni tribes from the city and from the North West areas.
Global assessment of the “Electoral Babylon”
The sheer huge number of candidates and coalitions will create a balance of power blocking the complete control by one leader or one faction of the upcoming parliament. Leaders such as Sistani is expected to emerge as a major player in the Shiite areas, the two Kurdish chiefs Talabani and Barazani will secure their bloc at the assembly, while the rest of the forces and parties will partition the rest of the seats in smaller fragments
The candidates’ volume and the mosaic of coalitions are expected to unleash a massive post election debate about the process: A phenomenon which cannot be reversed by any attempt to establish a dominant one-man or one-party dictatorship.
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